A administração da taxa de câmbio no Plano Real e os fundamentos econômicos brasileiros

AUTOR(ES)

Fernando Antônio Ribeiro Soares

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

The thesis analyses exchange rate anchors over the 90s and their relationship with economic fundaments. Specifically, it was examined whether the episodes of exchange rate volatility experienced in Brazil are directly caused by the deterioration of economic fundaments. First, the Real Plan was described, as well as the central role of the exchange rate anchor to that stabilization program. Next, from a theoretical standpoint, the definition and the uses of exchange rate anchors in general , along with the specifics of the Brazilian experience were evaluated. Next topic was the construction of an exchange rate pressure index, based on the nominal exchange rate, the stock of foreign exchange reserves and the current interest rates. The instrument was used to identify moments at which the national currency was under speculative attack. Then the relationship between exchange rate and the economic fundaments were considered. To do so, a series of indicators were described and analyzed particularly the ones associated with the external, fiscal and monetary environment. Special attention was drawn to the evolution of the figures and their significance to the deterioration of economic fundaments. Next step was the construction of indices of pressure on (from) fundaments, to capture the degree and extension of the disequilibria in the exchange rate market and, overall, in the fundaments of the economy. The indices of deterioration of fundaments and their correlation to the exchange rate pressure indices were studied next. The results indicate the deterioration of fundaments as an important factor for the exchange rate instability of the 90s and, particularly, for the exchange rate crisis of January/1999.

ASSUNTO(S)

plano real âncora cambial macroeconomia aberta fundamentos econômicos finanças internacionais economia crises cambiais

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