A study over the viability of predict rain in the northeast Brazil in advance from one to nine months / Um estudo sobre a viabilidade de prever chuvas no nordeste do Brasil, com antecedencia de um a nove meses

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

1982

RESUMO

The statistical tecniques of correlation, regression and principal components were employed to study the viability of long range (1 to 9 months) precipitation forecasting for Northeast Brazil, during the rainy season. The predictors were defined by taking lag correlations between precipitation in Northeast Brazil and meteorological parameters, for several stations located between 60° N and 60 ¸ S. The use for the precipitation data itself, observed prior to the rainy season, was tested as a possible predictor. From the variables which have the highest correlations with, Northeast precipitation, the effective predictors were selected and prediction analysis was made applying the multiple linear regression technique. The results of the regression analysis were encouraging at least in indicating the tendency for precipitation to be above or below normal. However, the numerical values obtained with the regression equation do not always compare well with the observations. A detailed analysis of the correlation coefficients showed that their values dependent on the sample size. Therefore, caution should be taken in applying the multiple linear regression equation, as the regression coefficients depend on the correlation coefficients.

ASSUNTO(S)

meteorologia tropical estudos do tempo e do clima precipitacao (meteorologia) regiao nordeste- brasil seca

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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