Development for the Tietê-Paraná valley: focus on stocks of capital. / Desenvolvimento do vale do Tietê-Paraná: um enfoque de estoques de capitais.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2002

RESUMO

The aim of this study was to identify which factors would be limiting the Tietê-Paraná valley development. The plans and projects focus on physical capital stock. Once the focus on this capital has been depleted, the focus has shifted to other forms of capitals. Therefore, the main goals were: (1) to evaluate the proposed alternatives for the cities in the Tietê-Paraná valley expressed in the plans and projects for the region; (2) analyze the importance of capital stocks for the development of cities located nearby the Tietê-Paraná rivers, and (3) appoint possible differences, among the determining factors for the development, existing among these cities and other cities in the São Paulo state. It was noted, through the Logical Structure Method, inconsistencies in the existing plans and projects for the region. As for the capital stocks, this study made use of Principal Components Methodology in order to reduce the number of variables initially obtained to represent the five capital stocks: natural, physical, financial, human and social. The analysis included 625 cities and it was established a dummy variable to distinguish the ones located nearby the rivers. Nine factors represent the capital stocks and were denominated: human capital 1 (education); physical capital; social capital 2 (distrust); natural capital (land); financial capital 2; natural capital 2 (depreciation). The percentage of the total variance explained by each stock was: 19.5 (human capital); 8.3 (social capital); 6.0 (financial capital); 5.9 (physical capital), and 4.8 (natural capital).Taking theses factors like explicative variables, linear regressions were adjusted. The depending variables in each of the three were: number of employees per capita, number of intermediate financial establishments and Human Development Index (IDH). The coefficients obtained were significant for those variables which were addressed in the respective regression equation. The natural capital showed the highest coefficient in the employment regression per capita , followed by the physical capital, however the importance of human capital stock is evidenced by its presence in the equation of the two factors which represent it. The same happened with the financial capital. These results suggest that the stock of human and financial capital be both more relevant in the explanation of the of the depending employment variable per capita. The intermediate financial establishments per capita are directly related to the following factors: financial capital 1, human capital 2, social capital 1 and social capital 2. Negatively, it relates to: natural capital 2, natural capital 1 and human capital 1. The negative values found in these three last stocks are probably due to the large number of low populated cities – generally found in regions of poorer soil and lower education levels of population – having at least one bank agency. All the regression coefficients for the IDH show signals according to what was expected and the physical capital is not part of the solution found. The dummy variable for the cities located nearby the rivers was not found in any of the equations. It is concluded, then, that there is no difference among the cities located nearby the rivers and the other cities of the state, regarding the role of the five capital stocks in the development.

ASSUNTO(S)

vales economic development parana state watershades desenvolvimento econômico projects tiete river social capital tietê - rio paraná capital humano projetos capital social human capital

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