Logit models for the probability of winning football games

AUTOR(ES)

Alves, Alessandro Martins, Mello, João Carlos Correia Baptista Soares de, Ramos, Thiago Graça, Sant'Anna, Annibal Parracho

FONTE

Pesquisa Operacional

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2011-12

RESUMO

Two ordinal logit models are applied to fit the results of matches in the Brazilian football championship. As explanatory variables are employed measures of previous performance of the teamsalong all preceding games, along recent games and when playing at home and as a visitor. The results of the models adjustment are employed in simulations performed to forecast the number of points to be earnedin the following games and to anticipate the teams' final classification.

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