Modelo de valorização de areas exploratorias com base nas licitações brasileiras

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2004

RESUMO

The concession process for oil and gas exploration through competitive bidding marks a significant step in the opening of Brazil?s petroleum sector. The range of opportunities on offer is considerable with most of the petroleum basins being represented. So far, since 1999, five bid rounds for oil and gas have taken place in Brazil where 88 blocks have been bided in four rounds, and 91 blocks on the fifth round, when the auction changed and the bonus value was not the most important parameter to be a winner in the lease. Approximately US$ 720 million have been collected, involving more than 43 oil companies. Petrobras, alone or in joint ventures, is the operator of 31 blocks (leased on the four first rounds which represents about 36% of total) and acquired more 85 blocks in the bidding process of 2003, responsible for the amount of approximately US$ 230 million in the five rounds. This thesis attempts to delineate the main features and statistics of those bids, and considering that the bid value is a fraction of the estimated value by operators, another objective of this thesis is to reach a set of proxies of unknown values of the blocks through the successful bids. The blocks are divided considering their geological characteristics and the winners? value is estimated for each group. The estimated value of the blocks is calculated through stochastic simulation of these bid fractions using a compound probability distribution. These values can be used as an acreage value for new investments by oil companies as well as for the regulatory agency to evaluate bid performance

ASSUNTO(S)

petroleo industria petrolifera leilões petroleo - reservas

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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