Modelos Dinâmicos Acoplados para Simulação da Ecologia do vetor Aedes aegypti

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

The population dynamic of the vector Aedes aegypti and the dispersion of the Dengue virus have stimulated many studies. Computational models to simulate these phenomena are critically important to decision making in Public Health and to evaluate risk areas of Dengue transmission. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, has been suffering strong Dengue epidemics and the most severe was in 2008. To understand Dengue epidemics, this work proposes a new spatially-explicit dynamic model to simulate Aedes aegypti ecology. The model considers the influence of climate and environmental variables. It has been used to estimate the minimal quantity of breeding sites in the area of study necessary to support the oviposition rate (eggs/per week) observed during this work. The district of Higienópolis, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil has been chosen as study area due to the availability of data. Weekly samples of oviposition were collected to some census sector in this district in the period between September 2006 and March 2008 by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz, RJ) research institute. Temperature data was collected from the Galeão meteorological station, Rio de Janeiro, RJ. The developed model has been integrated with a geographical database also developed in this work. This way, the model can be used to identify places which have the biggest concentrations of breeding sites and to guide the control actions. The model here developed is based on the Ferreira e Yang (2003a) model with some improvements proposed by Otero et al. (2006). Others improvements are original contributions of this effort. For instance, a quadratic relation between the statistics of oviposition and the environmental temperature has been established, the model to the inhibition of oviposition due to excessive larval density has been developed, and a new methodology to estimate the breeding sites density of a region trough the oviposition measurements has been proposed and evaluated. The model has been implemented in the modeling software platform called TerraME. After that, it has been calibrated and validated t. Some directions for future works has been appointed.

ASSUNTO(S)

modelos computacionais dinâmica populacional e dispersão do mosquito vetor do vírus dengue aedes aegypti ecologia aplicada

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