Planejamento do "mix energÃtico" de geraÃÃo de energia elÃtrica no Brasil : uma avaliaÃÃo da aplicabilidade de otimizaÃÃo linear multiobjetivo no contexto do novo modelo institucional do setor elÃtrico

AUTOR(ES)

Leonardo Lins de Alburquerque

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2005

RESUMO

This dissertation was developed having as premisse to be including and to allow easy understanding of the displayed, preventing, however, the superficiality. It composes of three independent parts that complete themselves, in the case, the chapters 2, 3 and 4, which can be read in the order where to desire, after the introduction of Chapter 1. Each part would give field to develop itself detailed and specifies dissertations, by the posssibilities of the corresponding subjects. In Part 1 is presented a retrospect of the developmented processes of brazilian eletric system expansion planning during the last century, mainly in the period coordinated by ELETROBRÃS, from 1964 to 1999, under the monopoly regional model, effective installed in Brazil until 1995. It comes to the present, with the responsability for the national energetic expansion planning under the responsability of the Ministery of Mines and Energy, coexisting with the activities of generation and comercialization of electric energy developing itselves in regimen of competition between state owned and private companies, in two environments: one regulated, that searches to protect the captives consumers and other with free trading between production and consumption agents. The Part 2 basically deals with mathematical programming methods. In it, are indicated applications of the linear programming in studies of long term expansion planning for electric generation under classic mono-objective approach, as in multiobjective.Detached attention is given, in the multiobjective case, to an interactive approach that uses tri-objective linear programming that facilitating sufficiently, in the our point of view, the interaction between the decision maker and the analyst, in the research and definition of solution of compromise to be chosen, being useful thus for situations where the corporate decision maker and multiples entities is evolved, inherent to the processes of governmental planning. In Part 3 is evidenced the probabilistic behavior of hydrelectric production in Brazil,taking as exemple the CHESF hydrelectric plants in Sao Francisco river. To better apply linear multiobjective programming in the context of strong hydroelectric systems as occuring in Brazil, is explored an approach and considered a procedure which allows to find an optimal composition of a hydro-thermic systems to suplying projected electric energy requirements, in the future, which benefits of the favorable flows and bigger probability of occurrence, adopting however, protection against reduced flowing out period with the use of termelectric stations for security and economical reasons. As a Dissertation result it is concluded that the methodology of a linear multiobjective programming has ample field of application in the context of the new institutional model of brazilian electric sector, in which the expansion planning to be projected by the federal government, will be, of course, focus of the natural conflicting pressures of differents agents and of multiples objectives to consider

ASSUNTO(S)

energia elÃtrica â brasil engenharia de produÃÃo engenharia de producao

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