Vector Autoregressive Var
Mostrando 1-12 de 18 artigos, teses e dissertações.
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1. Não linearidade entre câmbio e preços no Brasil e implicações para uma estratégia de desenvolvimento econômico
RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é realizar uma análise da política monetária no Brasil a partir de um modelo de Vetores Autorregressivos com Cadeias de Markov (MS-VAR), na busca de evidências da não linearidade da relação entre câmbio e preços no Brasil. A análise demonstrou que, em períodos de apreciação cambial, tanto pelo lado da demanda quan
Brazil. J. Polit. Econ.. Publicado em: 02/05/2019
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2. MODELANDO EXPECTATIVAS PARA TÃTULOS PÃBLICOS NACIONAIS: UMA APLICAÃÃO COM MODELOS VAR / MODELING EXPECTATIONS FOR NATIONAL PUBLIC SECURITIES: AN APPLICATION TO MODELS VAR
Considering the timing with which the market and the economic and financial analysts require information about the evolution of the assets, this work provides subsidies to apply time series models to anticipate the return of Brazilian government bonds. Vector auto-regressive models are developed and estimated for the main assets in government securities mark
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 27/02/2012
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3. Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions
We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we p
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV. Publicado em: 27/01/2011
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4. Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions
We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new two-step model selecti
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV. Publicado em: 13/09/2010
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5. Liberalização da conta de capital e fluxos de portfólio para o Brasil
The present work seeks to investigate the dynamics of capital account liberalization and its impact on short run capital flows to Brazil in the period of 1995-2002, considering different segments such as the monetary, derivative and equity markets. This task is pursued by developing a comparative study of financial flows and examining how it is affected by t
Publicado em: 25/06/2010
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6. Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions
We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new two-step model selecti
Publicado em: 29/03/2010
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7. Determinantes da taxa de juros no Brasil: uma abordagem não-linear
This paper investigates the interest rate determination in Brazil based on autoregressive Markov-Switching Process (MS-VAR). Initially developed to model US business cycle, the MS-VAR approach has been used in several fields in conomics due to its flexibility and to its important empirical results, based on estimates of nonlinear parameters of the regression
Publicado em: 2010
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8. Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions
We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties for a lack of parsimony, as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a n
Publicado em: 05/02/2009
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9. O spread de crédito no Brasil: fatores que afetam sua trajetória no regime de metas de inflação / Credit spread in Brazil: factors that affect its tendency under inflation targeting policy
Esta dissertação investiga quais são as variáveis econômicas e financeiras que afetam o comportamento do spread de crédito, determinando a influência de cada fator separadamente sobre o segmento de crédito para pessoas físicas e o segmento de crédito para pessoas jurídicas. O período analisado corresponde ao período pós implantação do regime
Publicado em: 2009
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10. Modelagem do processo de análise fundamentalista de uma empresa com utilização de vetores autoregressivos
O presente estudo busca projetar o retorno e o preço da ação de uma empresa através da simulação de um processo de Análise Fundamentalista baseado em um modelo econométrico de Vetores Autoregressivos (VAR). Para isso, procurou-se definir indicadores relevantes e especificar um modelo VAR adequado à simulação da análise fundamentalista da Sadia S/
Publicado em: 2009
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11. Determinantes de longo prazo do produto e da produtividade total dos fatores da agropecuária brasileira: 1974-2005 / Product and total factor productivity determinants of Brazilian agriculture, in the long run: 1974-2005
The agricultural sector is one of the most important in the Brazilian economy. In addition to the dynamism responsible for important chain effects on other sectors activities, it also contributes to obtain expressive positive credit balances in the recently verified commercial balance, and consequently to generate foreign exchange credits, essential for main
Publicado em: 2009
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12. Transmission of prices and volatility in the marketing of pork / Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína
The pork chain, despite showing significant technical improvement and competitiveness, is still one of the most volatile sectors of Brazilian agribusiness, and marketing and price fluctuation is one of the main barriers for its development. Accordingly, the present study aimed to analyze the price ratios and volatility among production agents and major meat
Publicado em: 2009